Ontario Wind Performance

I recently ran across David Robinson’s article (see http://ontariowindperformance.wordpress.com/2010/09/24/chapter-3-1-powering-ontario/#comment-219) where he took a detailed look at the performance of wind power production in the province. His purpose was to confirm or disprove “facts” about wind power. His analysis has shown many “facts” to be anything but. Given some time, I’m hoping to do a similar analysis of UK power but to spend a bit more time on the probability distributions of actual performance to enable some assessments of future forecasting. See first steps here and here.

4 Responses to Ontario Wind Performance

  1. fujirobin says:

    Didn’t really find his analysis very convincing. He cheerfully mixes up power (MW) and energy (MWh) and timescales which I find annoying. And he analyses a system with a small amount of wind on it and concludes that wind production is small in the scheme of things. Wow.

  2. rms says:

    Interesting. I hadn’t yet gotten into those details.

    My hunch is that we only know the half of it. He’s focusing on the numbers here; but he also refers to the sentimental views of wind as the future primary energy source and he’s looking at the numbers to counteract those positions.

  3. fujirobin says:

    I’m coming to the view that its best to view wind simply as a fuel-saver. If fossil fuel prices go through the roof, wind will make a lot more sense. If they don’t wind will continue to appear expensive.

    btw have you seen this article on the value of wind production? http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5354

  4. rms says:

    Yes, for every KHW produced by wind is a KWH not produced by something else. I can’t get my head around why wind is so expensive other than it’s simply in efficient (and I can see where that is true).

    I probably saw the Oil Drum article back in 2009 when it was published; but wasn’t thinking much about the topic then. Will go back and read it carefully. Thanks.

    ( I gotta get a staff or more time!)

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