This is terrific

The Chief Scientist, Professor David MacKay, of the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate change has released the “DECC 2050 Calculator.”

This tool is an interface to the first version of a calculator to help policymakers, the energy industry and the public understand these choices. This work is not about choosing a pathway out to 2050 today — such a task would not be feasible given the major unknowns and timeframe involved. However, this work enables us to better manage some significant long-term uncertainties and helps us to avoid making long-term decisions that are incompatible with meeting our 2050 emissions target.

The tool is easy to access and easy to use. Within the assumptions and logic of the model, you can draw your own conclusions about the energy policies the UK should take.
They have released the source code for the tool. I’m going to take a look and see how they handled the probabilistic aspects of the modelling.
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