Wow! The Hockey Stick Admitted wrong by IPCC Co-Chair

October 18, 2019

We’ve known this for years. Now in a published discussion between Anthony Watts (whose open-sourced study of the world’s thermometers debunked the quality of their readings and led to detection of fraudulent data changes) and Steve McIntyre, founder and editor of the blog dedicated to analysis of climate data Climate Audit whose work showed Mann’s “hockey stick” was “is a result of a methodologically wrong statistical procedure, one that is guaranteed to produce a hockey stick even if you insert random-walk data as the input.”

In that audio discussion, they talk about how 2006, current IPCC co-chair Valerie Masson-Delmotte told McIntyre that she “agreed w. our criticism of Mann’s work” but asked that her name not be disclosed. She’s now granted that permission.  See https://twitter.com/tan123/status/1184575584275517442

Also See Lubos Motl’s pithy comments: https://motls.blogspot.com/2019/10/top-ipccs-paleoclimatologist-agrees.html

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The “climate doom” timeline | Watts Up With That?

September 29, 2019

The “climate doom” timeline | Watts Up With That?
— Read on wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/29/the-climate-doom-timeline/

Anthony nails it.


How about a Bipartisan Treaty against the Criminalization of Elections? | National Review

September 29, 2019

How about a Bipartisan Treaty against the Criminalization of Elections? | National Review
— Read on www.nationalreview.com/2019/09/how-about-a-bipartisan-treaty-against-the-criminalization-of-elections/amp/

Andy McCarthy always writes eloquently. This “criminalisation” is going on not only in US but also UK. Perhaps it has always gone on but in today’s world where the media is so much more in everyone’s face spouting truths and in-truths without regard to any facts, it’s a warning sign about the direction we head.


More Proof That Climate Models Are Not Worthly

September 29, 2019

wattsupwiththat.com/2019/09/29/how-many-times-do-useless-climate-models-have-to-be-killed-before-they-die/

I don’t need to say it (but have been for years). Those pushing the so-called “Climate Emergency” have as their only “scientific” proof is these climate models. Computer programmes. There is nothing magic about computer programs. I’ve been there done that. Why we are using them as a basic of change to society beggars consideration. Or is there something else at work? Probably.


Shared Files on Dropbox

May 30, 2019

Dropbox used to have a way to show all the folders and files that are shared. That feature seems to have disappeared. Mystery why they did that. To me, that seems to be basic security functionality. Probably removed from the commercial version and only in the “business” product since business would normally have IT security people who would insist in such a thing. Why “regular” users, who also have security knowledge and experience would not want/demand that is a mystery.

In any event, after a small amount of internet searching, on https://www.dropboxforum.com/t5/Dropbox/Ability-to-Locate-Shared-Folder/idc-p/283887/highlight/true#M50401 I found this gem for use on Mac OSX and Linux/Unix:

Grep dropbox shared

grep -r -i –include=”*.dropbox” shared .

I’d show an example of the output, but then I’d be exposing file names which I’d prefer not to!


Wow. Look at This

May 12, 2019

Over at Chiefio, https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/05/11/ghcn-v3-3-vs-v4-asia-anomaly/#comment-112097 he/she has done a terrific analysis of global temperatures, with focus on “anomalies”.  Must see.

Conclusions:

Looking at those graphs, I just can’t see any way to justify the claim that it is caused by CO2. CO2 is a slow gradual effect over decades (per the claims) and with stong DECAY of effect with concentration. It doesn’t “do nothing” until 2000 then give a 1 C to 2 C step change. It doesn’t “trim off the cold years” and only narrow the range of variability while not raising the warmer years in one country, while doing something quite different in the country right next door.

I’d like to think I gave him/her some pointers to move into Python, a database, etc. He/she didn’t (yet?) get into using Pandas for data analysis, but someday maybe.


Research Re-discovery of the Obvious

July 20, 2017

I get things in my RSS feeds. Most of the time interesting. Sometimes it’s “What the XXX?”.

Ocean Science Journal just published a peer-reviewed items “The “shallow-waterness” of the wave climate in European coastal regions” (Christensen, K. H., Carrasco, A., Bidlot, J.-R., and Breivik, Ø.: The “shallow-waterness” of the wave climate in European coastal regions, Ocean Sci., 13, 589-597, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-13-589-2017, 2017).

The Abstract (emphasis added by me):

In contrast to deep water waves, shallow water waves are influenced by bottom topography, which has consequences for the propagation of wave energy as well as for the energy and momentum exchange between the waves and the mean flow. The ERA-Interim reanalysis is used to assess the fraction of wave energy associated with shallow water waves in coastal regions in Europe. We show maps of the distribution of this fraction as well as time series statistics from eight selected stations. There is a strong seasonal dependence and high values are typically associated with winter storms, indicating that shallow water wave effects can occasionally be important even in the deeper parts of the shelf seas otherwise dominated by deep water waves.

Where to start?

  • The distinction between “deep” and “shallow” water waves is artificial. Water follows the laws of nature regardless of water depth. Mankind has invented mathematical equations of motions for waves. The depth of the water and the wave height (profile) are part of of those equations. For “deep” water the affect of water depth on the computed equations of motion is minor and can be disregarded. That is a fortuitous because the equations are so much harder (impossible?) to solve mathematically if the water depth is not ignored.
  • The use of the word “consequences” seems to be inflammatory. Certainly suggests “dangerous” to the un-informed. What are the consequences other than for the work to solve the difficult equations of motions?
  • Of course there are “seasonal dependance”! In some seasons the wind blows and make big waves. Sometimes the waves are small even in shallow water and thus can be assumed to be “deep water” waves. And if the wave heights are big enough so that the water depth effects are not minor, then by definition they become “shallow-water” waves! Of course. Where is the news in this?
  • These things seem to “important” only to those who are looking to use the easy wave equations to assume “deep” water when in fact the water is “shallow”.

I can’t figure out from the abstract why I should bother reading the paper. My bad.

I spent a couple of years in grad school and early career in the 1970’s trying to simulate shallow water waves and their affect on wave power machines, moored ships, etc.

I really wonder who funded this study and why